The gravity model and trade in intermediate inputs

Is the gravity model as applicable to trade in intermediate inputs as it is to trade in final goods? One of the contributions of this paper is that we explicitly account for the dual nature of products that can be used as either intermediate inputs or final goods. We find that the structural gravity model performs extremely well for describing bilateral trade in final goods and in intermediate inputs. Moreover, this continues to hold even when we focus on a subset of countries in which intermediate inputs trade accounts for a growing share of trade, namely "Factory Asia." However, the gravity model may perform poorly due to model misspecification (i.e., exclusion of intranational trade) and/or sample selection, even after the model considers the dual nature of products. We demonstrate that the poor performance of the gravity model is not attributable to the large trade flow of intermediate inputs, which supports the continued use of the model as these trade flows continue to grow in importance worldwide.     

Industrial Upgrading in a Multiple‐cone Heckscher–Ohlin Model: The Flying Geese Patterns of Industrial Development

This paper examines empirically how the multiple‐cone version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model fits the “flying geese” patterns of industrial development: a series of industries appear, prosper, then decline and finally disappear one after another. Using Japanese manufacturing data from 1975 to 2006, the analysis shows that the multiple‐cone model fits well with the flying geese patterns of Japanese industrial development. The result suggests that part of the industrial upgrading can be explained by the multiple‐cone HO model. This also implies that an underlying mechanism of macroeconomic growth is industrial upgrading, part of which can be attributed to capital accumulation.     

Regional economic development,strategic investors,and efficiency of Chinese city commercial banks

We investigate the effect of strategic investors on bank efficiency in the context of regional economic development. The data on Chinese city commercial banks operating regionally are well-suited for the study. Our findings suggest that strategic investors significantly increase efficiency in Chinese city commercial banks, while the effect of strategic investors on the efficiency of Chinese city commercial banks is negatively correlated to the level of regional economic development. The negative correlation of the effect of strategic investors on Chinese city commercial banks’ efficiency with regional economic development may be explained by the mix of local official promotion system and city commercial banks’ governance structure.     

Foreign-owned versus Domestically-owned Firms: Economic Performance in Japan

This paper utilizes micro‐panel data for firms located in Japan and examines differences in corporate performance between foreign‐owned and domestically‐owned firms in the 1990s. We find that foreign‐owned firms not only reflect superior static characteristics, but also achieve faster growth. Moreover, foreign investors appear to invest in firms that may not be immediately profitable, but those that are potentially the most profitable in the future. There is also no evidence that foreign investor is “foot‐loose.” These imply that foreign investors bring useful firm‐specific assets into the Japanese market, which may work as an effective catalyst for necessary structural reform.     

Computational Analysis of the Menu of US‐Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of US‐Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential US and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers and global (multilateral) free trade. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalisation. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on non‐member countries for some of the FTAs analysed. In comparison to the welfare gains from the US and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalisation by the United States, Japan and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The US and Japan FTAs are based on ‘hub’ and ‘spoke’ arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.     

Are Banks Affiliated with Bank Holding Companies More Efficient Than Independent Banks? The Recent Experience Regarding Japanese Regional BHCs

Few studies have investigated whether Japanese banks affiliated with bank holding companies are more efficient and profitable than independent banks. The present paper tests this hypothesis by using both a stochastic frontier approach and a market valuation approach. First, our results suggest that banks affiliated with bank holding companies are not more cost-efficient than are independent banks. Because of the brief history of Japanese BHCs, it is fair to conclude that the formation of regional bank holding companies has not achieved efficiency gains so far. Second, we find that banks affiliated with bank holding companies are more profit-efficient than are independent banks. This is particularly apparent when the establishment of the bank holding companies increases market power in regional markets. This supports the Financial Services Agency’s policy to increase the profitability of regional banks through bank consolidation. Finally, based on standard event study methodology, we find that the market did not regard news about the establishment of bank holding companies as significant events.JEL Classification: G21     

Exchange Rate,Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment

In the light of the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) for the promotion of economic development, this paper examines the impact of the changes in the real exchange rate and its volatility on FDI. Examining Japan's FDI by industries, we found that the depreciation of the currency of the host country attracted FDI, while the high volatility of the exchange rate discouraged FDI. Our results suggest the need to avoid over‐valuation of the exchange rate and to maintain stable but flexible exchange rate in order to attract FDI.     

Are US Exports Different from China’s Exports? Evidence from Japan’s Imports

Are US exports different from China’s exports? If so, how? This article attempts to answer this question, using product‐level manufacturing import data from Japan. To make the comparison clear, this article also examines exports from the EU. The results indicate that more than 85 per cent and 83 per cent of products exported by the US and the EU, respectively, to Japan are also commonly exported from China. Both the US and the EU export products are priced higher than China’s export products, regardless of industries. This result suggests that quality differences matter in explaining the high overlap of China’s export products with US and EU export products. In some industries, however, the price differences of US and EU exports relative to China’s exports are relatively small. This result implies that either Chinese firms are upgrading the quality of their products, or US and EU firms are improving their efficiencies such that they can compete with Chinese firms.